ABSTRACT
This research investigated the trend of accident in Oyo State, Nigeria. The data is collected from Federal Road Safety Agencies Oyo State chapter, it covered a period of 17years (2001-2017), this gives a view into the rate of accident in the state
More so, the analysis was done with statistical time series using E-view software as the tool analysis. It shows that the data on accident in Oyo State is not stationary at the first level of Augumented Dickey Fuller unit root test, which include intercept, trend/intercept and none. But the data set is stationary at the first differencing, which also include the same test equations. However, the data set on accident in Oyo State follows Autoregressive model, this applies to all the variable involved, the models are; minor accident Y=0.317904t-1 + 0.263939t-2 +0.045332t-3 -0.097220t-4– -0.061867t-5 + 0.029531t-6+0.456775t-7 0.043657t-8 serious accident Y=0.317904t-1 + 0.6585055t-2 +0.510975t-3 -0.38094t-4– -0.671996t-5 + 0.459391t-6+0.394592t-7 0.037800t-8, fatal accident and Total accident is Y=0.317904t-1 + 0.658505t-2 +0.510975t-3 -0.38094t-4– -0.671996t-5 + 0.459391t-6+0.394592t-7 0.037800t-8
Since the variable involve are not stationary, it shows clearly that the whole data set on accident is not constant in the variance, mean and autocorrelation. The coefficient of determination R2 is 775%, this implies that 77.5% of the total accidents is explained by minor accident, serious accident and fatal accident.
Finally, alcohol used in driving is mostly common among commercial drivers, government should make laws and policy that will help these commercial drivers to prevent occasional recurrence of this situation, which is the major cause of road accident.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the Study
1.2 Statement of the Problem
1.3 Aim and Objectives of the Study
1.4 Significance of the Study
1.5 Scope of the Study
1.6 Limitation of the Study
1.7 Organisation of the Study
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Road Traffic Accidents
2.2 Review on Road Accidents in Nigeria
2.3 Causes of Road Traffic Accidents
CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY
3.1 Time Series Data
3.2 Trend, Seasonality, Cycles and Residuals
3.3 Stationary Processes
3.4 Autoregressive-Moving-Average Model
3.5 Autoregressive Mode
3.6 Moving-Average Model
3.6.1 Note about the Error Terms
3.6.2 Specification In Terms of Lag Operator
3.6.3 Alternative Notation
3.7 Fitting Models
3.8 Arima Processes
3.9 Estimation of the Autocovariance Function
3.10 Identification of Arima Models
3.11 Parameter Estimation
3.12 Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (Arima).
3.13 Distributions of the Acf and Pacf
3.14 White Noise
3.15 The Turning Points Test
CHAPTER FOUR: DATA ANALYSIS AND PRESENTATION
4.1 Data Presentation
CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
5.1 Summary
5.2 Conclusion
5.3 Recommendations
References
